Techniques for long-term prediction of high water in the period of spring flood and estimation of the date for its onset.
b. Scientific area/sub area: Environmental technologies for prediction, water resources.
c. Brief project description. In the case of disastrous floods a forecast of maximum runoff for the region as a whole, including hydrologically unexplored territories, and estimation of date for spring flood onset are highly relevant.
Techniques for territorial long-term prediction of maximum flood characteristics and probability of its onset for a perennial period have for the first time ever been scientifically developed at the Odessa State Environmental University. For typification of floods in accordance with their water content the authors made use of multivariate statistical model, which takes account of a complex of basic factors having an influence upon conditions of flood formation.
d. Project topicality. Development of spatial methods for long-term prediction of spring flood characteristics and estimation of the date for its onset.
e. Project goals and tasks. The goal of the project is working out of scientific approaches for prediction of spring flood characteristics. The basic task - substantiation of scientific-methodical basis, working out of methods for prediction of maximum discharge and depth of runoff for spring floods, their spatial generalization, estimation of their expectancy in perennial context; development of methodical basis for prediction of dates for the beginning of a flood and reaching its maximum discharge (levels).
f. Project methodology. The methodology is based on multivariate statistical model – discriminant function and spatial generalization on the basis of mapping of forecasting characteristics for spring runoff.
g. Project time/place. Research laboratories of OSENU – 18 months, research laboratories of the State University of New York – 6 months.
h. Prospective project results. A computer model which, on the basis of the available technologies, works out a long-term territorial prediction in accordance with the suggested method for plain river maximum discharge and runoff depth of spring flood, makes its spatial representation in the form of a map for the expected maximum module coefficients and effects its expectancy estimation in the on-line mode of prediction making, enabling the departments of the hydrometeorological service to make predictions with the lead time of 30-40 days (by way of example of the rivers of the Upper and Middle Dnepr in Ukraine).
i. Expected project impact. An economic effect due to the use of method consists in the done early realization of measures on defence of objects of economic activity and settlements, especially during catastrophically high floods. The done early evacuation of hazardous contaminating substances from the areas of submergence will be instrumental in reduction of negative ecological consequences.
j. Name and Title of the Leader of the Group –
E.D. Gopchenko, Doctor of Science in Hydrology, Professor, Head of the Department of Land Hydrology, OSENU
tel. +38 (0482) 326 746
k. Name and title of the Leader and main researchers/team members:
1. J.R. Shakirzanova, Associate Professor in Hydrology, Candidate of Science (PhD) in Hydrology, Deputy Dean of Hydrometeorological Institute of OSENU;
2. Y.S. Medvedeva, Post-graduate student
l. Experience and results of leader and team members of previous work. Under the direction of Prof. E.D. Gopchenko 2 dissertations of Candidate of Science (PhD) on the theme of research have been defended and approved. On the whole, more than 25 scientific papers of the participants in the project
(a monograph, textbooks, articles, conference papers), including 2 international publications on the topic of the project, were published.
m. Project’s divided budget prospective expenses comprise circa Є 100, 000.