Water resource management under the conditions of anthropogenous effect, including global climate change.
b. Scientific area/sub area:
water resources / processes "climate - runoff V atmospheric process contribution / natural water resource restoration / estimation and forecasting of water resources subject to man-made transformation / global warming / modeling / water management
c. Brief project description:
The base of the project is the "climate –runoff” model. The theoretical foundation of this model is equations of water-heat and water-management balance in the probabilistic form, climatic factors being the principal elements of water-heat balance structure. The inputs of the model are results of geographical generalization of data under natural conditions and meteorological information of global climate change scenarios. The state of the water resources, calculated on the basis of meteorological data, is considered as initial state at modeling of man-made runoff. The man-made runoff is a result of interactions between the natural runoff and man-made water transformations. Modeling of the man-made (life conditioned) runoff was realized by means of a stochastic model, where the natural and man-made water transformations (norms of irrigation, drainage, additional evaporation from water surface of artificial reservoirs, etc.) were treated separately and taken into account in the probabilistic form. Evaluation of influence of man-made water transformations consists in search for the operator of transformations of initial conditions in a hydrological system, which underwent them as a consequence of man-made activities. The results of mathematical modeling were presented as "functions of anthropogenous influence" or "response functions", which describe reaction of runoff characteristics to various kinds of water-economic transformations (irrigation, drainage, swift transference of water, creation of artificial reservoirs) depending on the given initial climatic conditions and scale of man-made activities. The model output is watershed response functions of man-made water-related activities under new climatic conditions. The response functions make it possible to make an assessment of risk to the state of water resources and ascertain the optimum levels of their consumption. With the purpose of efficient further collaboration in the field use of the latest data on global climate change scenarios is indispensable.
d. Project topicality.
The global climate impact can produce a strategy of the water resources
management. Climatic changes cause alterations in natural flow formation and water consumption. Responses of watersheds to man-made water-related activities will change, too. The main task of hydrologists is water resources forecasting in the future based on their evaluation at present.
e. Project goals and tasks:
- to establish a corelation between statistical structure of
meteorological and hydrological fields of various scales with
the purpose of evaluation, reconstruction and forecasting of hydrological characteristics on the basis of meteorological data (main components, factor analysis);
- to establish the effect of main atmospheric center oscillations on runoff
fields formation ( NAO, PDO indices, etc.) for various regions of
the world, including Central and East European alongside with Far East basins (the Ussuri basin, for example);
- to solve a problem of natural runoff series restoration;
- to model man-made (life conditioned) runoff series;
- to perform calculations of changes in climatic constituents of water-management balance depending on the given initial climatic conditions and scale of man-made activities (areas of irrigation, drainage, water surface of artificial reservoirs, volumes of swift transference of water, etc.);
- to address the problem of combined use of surface and ground water resources;
- to perform calculations of response functions for estimation and forecasting of runoff characteristics under man made transformation.
f. Project methodology:
methods of principal component (empirical orthogonal function approach); wavelet and factor analysis for the solution of the problem of water resources evaluation and forecasting on the basis of meteorological data; neural network, investigations of multyfractality of river runoff records, water -heat balance, stochastic modeling of long-term runoff fluctuations for rationalization of water economy actions.
g. Project time/place 36 months in the regions under study in Ukraine and the USA (mountain or arid zones, for example). It is possible to develop a common methodology for investigation of "climate –runoff” corelation. Making use of the latest global climate change scenarios is of large significance to forecasting of water resources. A joint fieldwork could be organized throughout the period.
h. Prospective project results. Estimation of contribution the atmospheric processes in forming runoff fields in USA and Central - East Europe, including Ukraine. Forecasting water resources under global climate changes in zones of sufficient and insufficient humidity according to the new scenarios of global warming worked up by American scientists. Development of common ways in the field of water management under global climate change.
i. Expected project impact. According to the three scenarios of the World Meteorological Organization the expected decrease in Ukrainian water resources will comprise up to 20%. This effect will increase southwards in particular. The project will make it possible to define the exact perspective for the water using in the world.
j. Name and title of leader of group:
Nataliya Loboda, PhD, Hab.Dr, Full professor of Odessa State Environmental University.
k. Name and titles of the main researchers/team members:
V. N. Hokhlov, Habil.Dr.Degree in Geography O.I. Shamenkova, engineer
O.V. Shabliy, Head of the Department of Foreign Relatoins (OSENU)
N. D. Dovzhenko, post-graduate student
I.O. Shahman, post-graduate student
l. Experience and results of the leader and team members of the previous work.
The corelation between annual fields of climatic factors (evaporation and precipitation) and runoff were established. The method of calculation of natural water resources by meteorological data was developed. The results of NOF analysis and generalization of characteristics of natural runoff were used to reconstruct the natural annual runoff series for unstudied catchments. The results of stochastic modeling were represented as response functions. The calculation of Ukrainian water resources under global climate change were performed in accordance with WMO scenarios.
m. Project's divided budget: USD 60,600 (a year)
Equipment & Supplies(software)
Travel (2 month)
Sub-total FSU Team
10% Institutional Support
Total US Team